Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Big, Super-Duper Premier League Preview

Well, lets go alphabetically by team.

Arsenal

Biggest Strength Amazing technical ability, international squad is always on the forefront of diving tactics
Biggest Weakness Simply put: They're pussies.
X Factor Jack Wilshere. He's tiny, he's young, but he is immensely talented. At 17, how effective, and game-changing, can he really be?
Achilles Heel Health. Nasri and Rosicky are already out to start the season.
Prediction 5th

Oh Arsenal. You have to admire Wenger for sticking to his principles, but really, he is being done in by the fact that the players he tends to prefer (small, technically gifted, pacy) are also the ones that tend to spend a lot of time on the trainer's table, especially when you have no hard men to protect them. That is the story of Arsenal this year, and while Wenger has plenty of cash to spend after getting a fortune for the relatively undesired gifts of Adebayor and Toure, he doesn't look like spending any of it, unless he can convince Bordeaux to get his token starlet. As I stated above, Nasri and Rosicky are hurt, and while Nasri is a great player who should come back soon enough, Rosicky is hurt enough that I don't even think it's fair to really consider him a squad player. Honestly, since he dismantled the United States in 2006 World Cup, he has all of 61 appearances for Arsenal in ALL competitions. He's averaging about 20 apperances a year, which is great for a support player, but not someone as talented as Rosicky. Walcott and Fabs are back, but this team just can't seem to stay healthy. If their starting 11 stays relatively intact for the course of the year, they probably have enough steam to hold off City and even maybe push for 3rd or even 2nd. I just don't see that happening. They have too many injury-prone players and not enough grit to grind out tough victories. Hopefully they can beat Celtic in the qualifiers for the Champions League, otherwise it'll be back-to-back years in the Europa League.

Aston Villa

Biggest Strength Responsible and smart leadership, bolstered by some real quality players. If Ashley Young stays, which is more likely by the day, they have a great, albeit not particularly deep, squad
Biggest Weakness Can they really replace Gareth Barry?
X-Factor Fabian Delph. He is one of the most hyped up English products in a while, and most of those don't end well. If he is as good as advertised, how long until we see it?
Achilles Heel Stewart Downing is not, and never will be, Gareth Barry
Prediction 8th

Looking at the squad, it doesn't look much different. Only Barry and Laursen really mattered last year, and then you brought in some highly vaunted players in Delph and Downing. Sylvain Distin is always rumored in at the club, but it looks like that will be on hold as Portsmouth may want to actually field a team this season. O'Neill is a great manager, but really, how is this club going to get over that collapse last season? They were in pole position for 4th, and while Arsenal did get hot, they didn't exactly light up the Premiership. Villa folded so bad that they fell to 6th, and while they get to play in the Europa League again, it is a very small consolation. I don't see them making either this season simply because the downgrade from Barry is too much. Delph is coming from League 1, so even if he is a prodigy, it'll take at least a season to adjust to actually talented players. Downing was the creative fulcrum for a team that finished 19th, so how is supposed to be a replacement for the creative fulcrum for the team that finished 6th? I just don't see it. City will obviously leapfrog them, Everton is still better and throw in a full season for Harry Houdini, and 8th it is for Villa.

Birmingham, Burnley

Biggest Strength They're happy to be here
Biggest Weakness Both of them will have trouble scoring.
X-Factor A Reading-esque first-year charge is always possible.
Achilles Heel Both teams don't seem particularly talented, and not well suited for life in the Premier League.
Prediction 17th, 18th

I'm lumping them together because I'm not going to bullshit you. I don't follow the Championship. I'll follow Ipswich Town this year, because I love Roy Keane and I'm from a town called Ipswich. But otherwise, I never care. I'll check some results, but really, I don't know anything. I looked at the transfers, and Birmingham's aren't bad, and considering they did finish 2nd, perhaps I'll give them the nod to get 17th instead of Burnley. Burnley didn't really seem to buy anyone, and they finished 6th in the Championship. I know the pundits are lauding their promotion, and really, good for them. I just don't see them not yo-yoing. Both could stay up considering the relative impotence of some other teams that are still in the Premier League (we really should have relegated 6 last year), and considering most of those teams didn't get better (or even got worse), I wouldn't be surprised to see both of these teams stay up. But for the record, Birmingham 17th, Burnley 18th.

Blackburn Rovers

Biggest Strength Strong, tough Allardyce defense
Biggest Weakness Weak, impotent Allardyce offense
X Factor Deranged fan may light himself on fire for pure entertainment value. These games are going to be boooooorrrrrring.
Achilles Heel They are the cheapest tickets in the Premiership for a reason. NO ONE WANTS TO WATCH THEM.
Prediction 11th

Sam Allardyce has always challenged football fans. He inevitably gets results. His Bolton teams finished 5th in back-to-back seasons and nearly got relegated when he left. He can take crap teams and turn them into mid-table mediocrity, and sometimes, even, a Europa League bid. So, you'd think, he'd be one of the most popular managers in England. But watching Sam Allardyce coach football is not enjoyable. His teams are not fun to watch, his games are not interesting, and even his own fans have trouble going to games. Is football for entertainment or results? It's an argument for another day, but considering Allardyce is managing Blackburn, it's really the only interesting thing I can talk about. They'll be decent, grind out results and finish 11th. Yawn.

Bolton Wanderers

Biggest Strength Megson is really just an Allardyce clone, so yet again, strong defense.
Biggest Weakness As you will see with many other previews, this doesn't seem to be a high-scoring year. They'll struggle for goals.
X Factor They are a young, improving side, and those always have a chance to break out.
Achilles Heel They are a young, improving side, and those always have a chance for implosion.
Prediction 16th

Bolton is more or less the team they were last year, and another year of experience should help them out. So, why are they still only 16th in my prediction? Simple put, who will be worse? I think Stoke's homefield advantage gives them too much compared to Bolton, Sunderland made some good signings and had a strong squad already and Blackburn will get a full year with Allardyce. There isn't the same underclass this year as there was last year, and that is a great thing. If Birmingham/Burnley can punch above their weight, we might actually see teams with ability fight over relegation, and maybe even win some games! I'm telling you, it could be fun. Bolton will probably stay safe though, and make into the escapee zone for another year.

Chelsea

Biggest Strength Great squad loaded with internationals, basically reads as an all-star team. Drogba is a top 5 striker, Lampard a top 5 CM and Cech is a top 10 keeper. Add into that mix a ton of great players and it's hard to point to one strength.
Biggest Weakness How will Chelsea deal with their new diamond formation? It restricts some of the width that made them powerful under Mourinho, and with Bosingwa and Cole already shaky on defending responsibilities, do you really want to encourage to spend more time charging the flanks?
X Factor Drogba-Anelka. It is a bizarre partnership, but Hiddink seemed to make it work. Can Ancelotti?
Achilles Heel Age. With it comes the slow decay of abilities and a proneness to injuries. It shouldn't really affect Chelsea too much, but it's the elephant in the room.
Prediction 3rd

If Chelsea ever has a year to win with this squad, it is this year. Manchester United have lost their best player and have a mess at the goalkeeper position, and Liverpool lost half of their dynamic midfield in Alonso. Chelsea have always been the unlikable team, and really, I'd much rather see Manchester win the 4th in a row then watch Drogba, Ballack, Terry and Cashley Cole wildly celebrate a Premiership title. On paper, there's nothing that should stop them. Their squad is great, their players are world class, but there always seems to be an obstacle that trips them up in the home stretch. I don't really foresee that changing either, as this is the same team they've trotted out for the past few seasons. I know Colin hates Malouda, but he really played well under Hiddink, and I'm curious if he can keep that up for Ancelotti. I've never seen a team be as manager-dependent as this one, and it's ironic, considering a team full of veteran stars should be the last one to be so suspectible to their leadership. For better or for worse, it's down to Ancelotti, and in his first year at least, I don't see him capturing the title.

Everton

Biggest strength The definition of a team effort, Moyes has really crafted a cohesive unit that is always better than the sum of its parts. Having the world's best goalkeeper helps too.
Biggest Weakness Lack of depth. They were ravaged by injuries last year, and if it weren't for Villa's implosion and Tottenham's sluggish start, could have missed out on Europe.
X Factor How do they fare without Lescott if he goes, and if he stays, will he be a locker room cancer?
Achilles Heel Injuries, injuries, injuries
Prediction 6th

Everton is really a great story. They are a team that plays as one, and always does better than it should based on the strength of themselves as a unit. Unfortunately, in the Premiership that only results in the Europa League and 5th placed finishes, but it is great in its own little way. Moyes is a world-class manager, and when I think of how no big four team has never tried to raid him, it always comes as a surprise. Outside of their famous snag of Anton Peterlin, the squad is unchanged. And while in normal circumstances, I could pick them to sneak into 4th against Arsenal, I just don't see that happening anymore. Wenger's next generation is starting to blossom, as evidenced by the form of Wilshere and Vela, and Manchester City built themselves a superteam overnight. The era of the small-budget club that wins with brains and guile are unfortunately going by the wayside, and within a few years there won't even be places in the Europa League for them. Everton should enjoy this golden age while it lasts, and themselves and Aston Villa may very well be the last true small-budget contenders in England.

Fulham

Biggest Strength You know they're a lot like Everton. Great manager, great team squad.
Biggest Weakness A little too-dependent on home form, and that is never a good thing. They're an awful road team.
X Factor Clint Dempsey had a monster second half last season, can he follow it up this year?
Achilles Heel The scored 39 goals in 38 matches. That's a very poor return and one that could create issues next season.
Prediction 9th

Fulham, the former stronghold of American soccer, now only has one regular player from the states, and he is slowly emerging as their best player. Clint Dempsey really stepped up once Bullard was transferred, and if he can follow it up with a full season of top-class football, he probably will be looking at bigger things than the cottage next summer. They have an unchanged side, just as Hodgson would like it, and while that settling may prove healthy, this is still a side that has trouble scoring goals. They can't rely on getting 0-0 draws all the time, and while Schwarzer is a great keeper, it's far too much pressure to put on the Aussie. Fulham really overachieved last season, and they get the fruits of their labor in the form of the Europa League. Hopefully it won't prove too distracting for the team, and they can stay a top-half team.

Hull City

Biggest Strength Newfound American support by getting Altidore?
Biggest Weakness Phil Brown
X Factor Whoever replaces Phil Brown as manager, and when.
Achilles Heel Phil Brown
Prediction 19th

Look, lets get this out of the way. I'm not a huge fan of Phil Brown. His singular quest to make his skin Hull Orange is rather disturbing, and his obsession with celebrity and media is pathetic. It's one thing if you're the manager of a newly promoted side who is sharing first place, but it's something altogether different when your squad gets 1 point from 12 matches. They really didn't add much (as much as I love Jozy) and considering how woeful they were last season, I don't see why that would change. I don't see where they are going to get goals from, and how is going to stop them shipping on the other end. The team was unmasked as a fraud early last season, and thats not changing anytime soon. If Brown gets replaced by somebody highly competent at some point early in the season, they have hope, but not much. I'd say 20th, but really, I like Jozy too much. 19th it is.

Liverpool

Biggest Strength Gerrard/Torres.
Biggest Weakness Depth, but now the fact that Aquilani will have to adjust to the English game in a title hunt is not exactly great either.
X Factor Aquilani is supposedly more of a goal-scoring threat than Alonso. Can he shoulder some of the goal-scoring burden off of the big 2?
Achilles Heel Lucas Leiva is still a regular squad member.
Prediction 1st (come on, did you expect something else?)

Ah the Scousers. Not as eventful a summer for them as the media would have you believe (Johnson, Aquilani in, Alonso, Arbeloa out), and considering they made a large defensive upgrade as well as remains-to-be-seen replacement of Alonso, and the fact that those transfers about equal out in value seems to be pretty good business for Liverpool. I was surprised by how little they got for Arbeloa, but I guess watching a player for every game may inflate his value just a tad. Glen Johnson is a high-quality back, and can contribute immediately, and I'm holding out hope for Aquilani. What it comes down to for Liverpool are two things: Keeping Gerrard/Torres healthy and incorporating Benayoun. Benayoun you ask? Benayoun was the only other person who kept us in the hunt for trophies last season, from a goal-scoring perspective. Kuyt is always dependable for work rate, but Benayoun provided brilliance from an unexpected source, and it would be a shame to have him languishing on the bench all season. He is a top-quality player, and if Rafa can figure out how to make him more involved, he could be the crux that swings the title back to Liverpool. Manchester United is weaker this season, and Liverpool must capitalize, and with smart management, I think they can.

Manchester City

Biggest Strength Staggering depth
Biggest Weakness No forthcoming rule change to allow 20 players a team.
X Factor Stephen Ireland was their best player last season, but he's not a big name, will he stay relevant in this galactico-like side?
Achilles Heel Can Sparky really keep all these egos in check?
Prediction 4th

Manchester City is making Chelsea look frugal. They have bought an absurdly large squad, and just recently remembered that you generally want a defense to accompany the offense. Simply put, they have too much talent. There are too many players here who can create breathtaking goals for them to fail. It is a top-quality side full of great players, and really, their biggest issue is finding enough space for them all. Critics say they don't have workers, but last I checked, their lineup included Gareth Barry and Carlos Tevez, so I'm going to have to go and disagree on that one. I think their best lineup will be Tevez/Adebayor up top with Robinho/Ireland/De Jong/Barry in the midfield. The worst kept secret is that Roque Santa Cruz had one good year and actually sucked last season, but don't tell Mark Hughes that. I'll wait to see when he realizes that and benches him. If Hughes is able to keep the egos in check, this team can challenge for the title, but I don't think they'll be able to do it this year. Instead, they'll have to settle for 4th. Not too shabby for the blue side of Manchester.

Manchester United

Biggest Strength Where do I start?
Biggest Weakness Cristiano's departure may lower international fandom from 3 billion to 2.95 billion
X Factor The young guys: Macheda/Welbeck. Can they deliver again this year?
Achilles Heel Rooney is inconsistent, though no one likes to mention it. Is he really the best bet for your generator of offense?
Prediction 2nd

Oh, Manchester United. Where to begin? They have the best living manager, one of the best defenses and the best youth development system in the world. They're a lock for the title right? Maybe not. Lets first start off with what has been Fergie's achilles heel as a manager: goalkeeper evaluation. He's had two periods of immense success, which happen to coincide with the two great goalies he has had: Peter Schmichael and Edwin van der Sar. With questions mounting about van der Sars's health, Ben Foster is waiting in the wings, and as we all saw in the charity shield, that is not an encouarging sign. Moving forward from there, the defense is all that it was last year, which is too say, remarkable. If van der Sar can come back in time, United won't ship a lot of goals. The midfield is where the new-look United is starting to take shape. Anderson has established himself with Carrick and Fletcher as the first-choice central midfielders, and all of them have immense quality. The wingers will have to prove themselves however. Nani on one wing has been something of an enigma in his time at Old Trafford, displaying dazzling skill but also poor decision-making and determination. Valencia was great at Wigan, but there is a different element to playing for a club like United, and we'll see if he can handle it. Suddenly, unlike in days past, the strikers are expected to score goals now too. Rooney has had consistency problems his whole career, and Berbatov has won over few fans in Stretford End. And Mickey Boy will have as much to prove as anyone, and who can say they're not looking forward to his match at Anfield? All in all, it's a Manchester United team that didn't win the title by much last year, and it came down to the wire. Their changes? Their goalies are less healthy, they brought in a new winger, and oh yeah, they sold the best player in the world. Ronny's departure will be deep as his midfield goals took pressure off the whole team, and before his emergence as a superstar, United were without the Premier League for half a decade. Will his departure spark a similar drought? Probably not, but just like my analysis, Manchester United this season is full of questions.

Portsmouth

Biggest Strength Lack of leadership means no chance for player mutiny
Biggest Weakness When I was making my fantasy team, the only striker listed for Portsmouth was David Nugent. Enough said.
X Factor You know, someone really rich could buy them.
Achilles Heel They aren't allowed to take a pass on this season.
Prediction 20th

Oh, Portsmouth. Rarely does a team do better when it ships its manager and all of their best players and replaces them with...nothing. If Portsmouth is bought soon, it'll probably be too late, as the club is now threadbare in terms of depth and quality, having only 18 outfield players. Hart is a great manager, and an amazing developer of talent, but even he will not be able to fix this mess. If bought, even by a spend-happy billionaire, Portsmouth will have to weather the first half of the season, which looks like it will not be particulary easy, or fun to watch. Portsmouth will probably finish above Hull City, who look absolutely woeful, but as I said before, I just can't bet against Jozy like that, so I give the joy of propping up the table to the south coast. It doesn't really matter, as both are going down hard anyways.

Stoke City

Biggest Strength Britannia Stadium has magical properties
Biggest Weakness When more than half your goals from someone not named James Beattie come from throw-ins, it may be a problem.
X Factor Can they stay as resilient at home?
Achilles Heel Behind hard-hitting defense and somewhat efficient offense, lies a large void of technical ability.
Prediction 13th

Tony Pulis puts Sam Allardyce to shame. He's making a hard-hitting team that people actually want to cheer for, if only because of their provincial nature. It's a team that swallow up anyone, as evidenced by two draws with Liverpool (that ultimately cost them the title). Pulis made great signings last January, with Beattie being the steal of that particular window. While the side has remained relatively unchanged, that does mean they'll have to rely on everything that kept them afloat last year. Their home form cannot falter, unless they suddenly want to start winning on the road. Beattie and Delap must provide offense again and the defense must hold firm. Pulis has never been relegated in his 18 seasons, and I don't see why that would change this one, but he can never take his eye off the 8-ball. There just isn't that big a margin of error.

Sunderland

Biggest Strength Steve Bruce and a new-look offense
Biggest Weakness Remember last time Darren Bent was unquestionably his team's best striker (Charlton Athletic-19th)
X Factor If Bent and Campbell can work well together, Sunderland can propel themselves to the top half of the league.
Achilles Heel This is a talented squad, but as was shown last year, not one full of heart and determination.
Prediction 12th

If only Roy Keane had lightened up a little bit. Maybe, just maybe, his team would begin responding again like they did in the Championship. Maybe he could take his rather talented squad and have them finish around mid-table again, gearing up for a Europa push in a year or two. But, alas, it was not meant to be. Keano left, and in his place came the incompetent Ricky Sbragia. Sunderland is still talented, and now with a good manager, the Wearside may begin to enjoy this newfound reversal of fortune of them being the higher-league club to rivals Newcastle. The additions of Bent and Campbell could help get some goals that the pouty Cisse was unable to provide last season, but as I stated, Bent being your main attacking option is no guarantee of success. He finished 4th in the league in goals, and his team finished 19th in standings. Frazier Campbell is an unproven player, and just because he came from Manchester United does not mean he's necessarily any good. After all, Fergie doesn't often let good players go (though, Giuseppe Rossi and Gerard Pique may disagree). Despite my misgivings of their new striking talent, this team does have far more to work with than most of the bottom half, and given their manager's experience in the top flight, should be rather safe from the drop, unlike last season, where only the sheer impotence of their rivals saved them.

Tottenham Hotspur

Biggest Strength Tons of attacking options, maybe too many, but still, a plethora of weapons are at Houdini's disposal.
Biggest Weakness Injury-prone backline could make them look like the Tottenham of the Berbatov years.
X Factor What do they play up top, and how soon can they find the effective formation?
Achilles Heel They have three strikers who all left previous clubs for a lack of playing time, how does Harry make them all happy, and oh yeah, they have Pavs too.
Prediction 7th

Spurs are looking like the spurs of yore. They are talented on the offensive end, and have their own slew of issues on the backline. They even brought back Defoe, Keane and Chimbonda. However, Harry will be tested in two critical departments. One, is how does he play all his strikers. Keane is his captain, and a big personality, but he seems to have settled on Crouch and Defoe. Does he give Keane his third transfer in a little over a year? Does he use a striker rotation policy? Redknapp was very happy with the Defoe/Crouch partnership at Portsmouth, and it is unlikely that he will want to shake it up too much, but as we all saw at Anfield, Robbie Keane reacts quite poorly to having his minutes trifled with. The Ledley King issue will always remain, but it is how newcomers Bassong, Naughton and Walker will fare that will probably decide Spurs' fate. If the newcomers are able to seemlessly incorporate themselves into the squad and be top contributors, Tottenham can spoil Everton or even Arsenal's party. While someone will be unhappy, whoever lines up at striker will be good, and should provide the goals they need. Their midfield is set. All Tottenham has to do is work out the kinks, for which Harry as shown a rather deft ability.

West Ham United

Biggest Strength Zola has proven to be a management whiz, and is bolstered by a solid backline
Biggest Weakness Financial issues always seem to manifest at the worst possible time.
X Factor No one relies on youth like Zola, and how they respond to a whole year in the spotlight will be telling.
Achilles Heel Very young squad + Increased expecations could equal disaster.
Prediction 10th

West Ham is a great story. Despite swirling financial turmoil, a playing legend took the reins of manager and led a young team to a respectable finish. I expect Zola and the kids to do just fine next year, it's just that I can't seem them replicating the same kind of success they had last season. First, young teams almost uniformly perform poorly when expectations are raised, but more importantly, financial turmoil wears down a team. Suddenly Gianfranco will be under pressure he didn't see before, and in January, don't be surprised to see some of his starlets get raided. Compared to the issues surrounding Portsmouth and Hull, it seems to be small potatoes at Upton Park. I think perhaps next season, not the forthcoming one, will be a breakout one, and for now, Zola and his kiddies just have to bid their time.

Wigan Athletic

Biggest Strength A strong backline remains despite something of a selloff
Biggest Weakness Since January, they've sold their three best players in Heskey, Palacios and Valencia.
X Factor Can Roberto Martinez replace Steve Bruce?
Achilles Heel Their new best player is probably Titus Bramble.
Prediction 15th

Wigan has been rather inspiring in how once they got the Premiership in 2005, they held on for dear life and haven't let go. They have had a history of selling their best players, and these past 8 months have been no different. Gone are Emilie Heskey, Wilson Palacios and Antonio Valencia, all three onto bigger and better things. It's one thing to replace a key player, it's an entirely different thing to replace 3. Wigan was in pole position for a Europa league spot even towards the latter half of last season, but their newly-deplted squad fell down to 11th. This year, they'll fall a little further. Wigan wasn't particularly interesting even with those talented players, and now it appears, it'll be even less so. Don't expect to see Wigan in the mix of things for Europa again, instead, they'll be a team slipping back into lower-mid table obscurity.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Biggest Strength Luck of the Irish: Mick McCarthy and Kevin Doyle!
Biggest Weakness McCarthy doesn't have the world's best history with keeping teams up
X Factor They have a lot of new signings, how will they all gel?
Achilles Heel They're a championship team who signed players from championship-level teams. Will that be enough?
Prediction 14th

When it comes to teams I'm going to cheer for next year, Wolverhampton has be included. Besides their Irish element, they have an American keeper in Marcus Hahnemann! For those keeping track at home, that means there are currently 3 American goalies starting in England with a fourth backing up another American! Decent days for American footy. I really don't know a ton about Wolves, considering as I stated above, I never watch the Championship. I'm not going to pretend I have working knowledge of this team, and I'm just going to mention how McCarthy is a quality manager, Doyle is a quality striker and they seemed to have made some decent signings elsewhere. Combined with a squad that won the Championship rather handidly last season, it should be enough to keep them safe.

For those of you who need a recap, here is how my table looks:
1. Liverpool
2. Manchester United
3. Chelsea
4. Manchester City
5. Arsenal
6. Everton
7. Tottenham Hotspur
8. Aston Villa
9. Fulham
10. West Ham United
11. Blackburn Rovers
12. Sunderland
13. Stoke City
14. Wolverhampton Wanderers
15. Wigan Athletic
16. Bolton Wanderers
17. Birmingham
18. Burnley
19. Hull City
20. Portsmouth


There you go, there's my preview. It's like you don't even have to watch the season now, you know how it ends!

No comments: