This has been a rollercoaster season, to say the least, for Tottenham Hotspur. Expectations were high for Juande Ramos after spending big on the summer purchases of Luka Modric, David Bentley, Giovanni dos Santos, Vedran Corluka and Roman Pavlyuchenko. However the bubble was burst, as Spurs opened with the worst record in club history through 9 games (0-7-2). Juande Ramos was thereafter disposed of (fear not, child, for he has moved on to greener pastures in Madrid). In came 'Arry Redknapp, and the next 9 games went far smoother, with Spurs posting a 7-2-0 record, climbing out of the bottom of the table. The Redknapp Revolution rolled on, adding key players Wilson Palacios, Robbie Keane, Jermain Defoe and Carlo Cuddicini in January.
In all, Spurs have climbed from 20th to 9th during Redknapp's tenure. I would like to take this opportunity to break down the chances of Spurs winning the 7th spot in the league table, and with it the final European spot.
Sitting in 9th, and with 7th a guarantee of Europa League qualification, Spurs obviously need to move up two spots in the remaining six games. Above Spurs (41 points) are West Ham (sitting on 44 points) and Fulham (43 points), while Wigan are even with Spurs on 41 points. I will break this down team by team:
Spurs:
An unenviable schedule is ahead for Spurs, with trips to Man Utd, Liverpool, and Everton still remaining.
Newcastle (H) - 3 points - Newcastle have been our "bogey team" the last few seasons, but not so much at White Hart Lane. Hopefully Shearer's magic will have no effect on us, just as it did on Chelsea
Man U (A) - 1 point - You may say that this is generous, to assume that we will get any points at Old Trafford. I would reply to you that though yes, they are the mighty Man Utd, We have already this year drawn with them twice (0-0 in the League, 0-0 after 120 minutes in the Carling Cup). Spurs have the ability to shut Man U down, and I think we will be motivated amply to do so again.
WBA (H) - 3 points - Need I say more?
Everton (A) - 0 points- Everton own us. They are better and they know it. And it's at Goodison Park... I just don't see us getting it done.
Man City (H) - 3 points- Two incredibly inconsistent teams face off... I base this prediction off of the fact that we beat them at the MiddleEastlands earlier in the season.
Liverpool (A) - 0 points- We played Liverpool in week 38 last season, and they wrecked us. I hope that by this point we will have already secured the 7th spot, but who knows?
That gives us 10 points in our final 6 games, finishing on 51 points.
Fulham
A decently less difficult schedule awaits the Cottagers. Trips to Chelsea (a top 4 side), Newcastle and Boro (both fighting for survival) could prove difficult. Villa and Everton will be difficult tests as well.
Boro (A) - 1 point
Stoke (H) - 3 points
Chelsea (A)- 0 points
Villa (H)- 0 points
Newcastle (A)- 3 points
Everton (H)- 0 points
According to my expert predictions, Fulham will earn 7 points in their final 6 games, finishing on 50 points.
West Ham
The Hammers have arguably the most difficult schedule of these four contenders for Europe. Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool and Everton all remain on the schedule, as well as a trip to Stoke (who boast one of the best home records in the Premiership) and a final weekend contest with Boro, who could still be alive in the relegation battle.
Villa (A)- 0 points
Chelsea (H)- 1 points
Stoke (A)- 1 point
Liverpool (H)- 0 points
Everton (A)- 1 point
Boro (H)- 3 points
As you can see, I predict a West Ham meltdown in the final stretch here. 6 points out of their final 6 games (and honestly, I feel like I am being generous with draws vs Chelsea and Everton) will have them finishing on 50 points.
Wigan
The Latics are served up a fairly easy final stretch, with Man Utd being the only top-half team that they will face. Granted, many of the bottom-half teams will be fighting for their Premiership lives, so they certainly will be no pushovers. Can Wigan put aside their recent poor form and finish strong in the 7th spot?
Rovers (A)- 1 points
Bolton (H)- 1 point
WBA (A)- 3 points
Man U (H)- 0 points
Stoke (A)- 1 point
Pompey (H)- 3 points
And so Wigan finish on 50 points as well. This brings the finish to:
7th: Spurs 51 pts
8th: Fulham 50 pts
9th: Wigan 50 pts
10th: West Ham 50 pts
Truthfully, this is impossible to predict. Games can go either way. I mean in my heart of hearts this is what I would love to see, but nobody can truly predict the finish, especially given how close it is at the moment. Best of luck to Spurs as they push forwards. In the dark they climb the slope, and the bravest thing of all (from the fan's perspective) is always hope!
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Monday, April 6, 2009
Wenger out of Whack
Alright, so I'm not sure if you've heard about Arsene Wenger's new proposal to spice up the league, but in my opinion, his idea is kinda off. Let me back up...
A couple of days ago (sorry not exactly sure when, though think it was on the 3rd) the Arsenal (psht) boss proposed a change to the Premier League's scoring: a team would receive the usual 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw, and 0 for a tie, but also would be rewarded with points equaling their positive goal differential in that game. E.g. you win 4-1, you get 3 points for win + 3 points from g.d. = 6 points from the game. The loser, zero.
I understand where he is coming from with this idea - its nice for teams to score goals, and win with scores like 2-0 or 4-1. It is indeed quite upsetting that Manchester United wins 1-0 on far too many accounts, employing a 'get one and hold em' strategy. However, this is their style of play, and it has been incredibly effective. Can you really fault a team for playing in a manner that wins them championships time and time again?
Also, with this new points scheme, it is conceivable that a team with an inferior record (W-D-L) could end up above a more successful team if they win by large margins. Another flaw with the system is say two teams are tied 3-3 in closing minutes (sick). The next goal is effectively worth 7 points in the table - that's just nuts! (You'll remember when Tottenham came back to tie Arsenal 4-4 in week 10, you know Wenger would be even less pleased if the new scoring system were in play).
A potentially more effective strategy could be to reward teams with a point for every goal they score. So a 4-3 match between A and B would result in 7 points for A and 3 for B, instead of 7 for A and 0 for B, as Wenger wants it. This would also reward goal scoring, attacking play, which is what Wenger has said he would like to see. Better yet, would be to give only a fraction of a point for goals scored, as 1 point per goal seems way too much - say a quarter of a point or something.
However, I have never been, and will never be a fan of goals or goal differential deciding rankings at the end of the season. Have a playoff game - THAT would be exciting (potentially). If spots 12 and 13 are tied on points at the end of the season, and they have a playoff game for bragging rights to spot 12 - boring. But imagine how thrilling it would be to have something similar to the promotion playoff games of the Coca-Cola Championship.
I'm getting wordy. My opinion is this: ONE - Do not ammend the points system, because scoring three points above the team you just beat should not effectively be 2 wins for you. TWO - If some goal differential/total goals proposition is accepted, do not make a goal = 1 point in the table. That places way too much importance on the number of goals you score versus the number of wins, draws, and losses you have. Make it such that 1 goal = 1/4 of a point, maybe 1/3 or at most 1/2.
Bottom line, I love how close the Premeirship table is, and I would not like to see a points scheme change that messes with that.
A couple of days ago (sorry not exactly sure when, though think it was on the 3rd) the Arsenal (psht) boss proposed a change to the Premier League's scoring: a team would receive the usual 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw, and 0 for a tie, but also would be rewarded with points equaling their positive goal differential in that game. E.g. you win 4-1, you get 3 points for win + 3 points from g.d. = 6 points from the game. The loser, zero.
I understand where he is coming from with this idea - its nice for teams to score goals, and win with scores like 2-0 or 4-1. It is indeed quite upsetting that Manchester United wins 1-0 on far too many accounts, employing a 'get one and hold em' strategy. However, this is their style of play, and it has been incredibly effective. Can you really fault a team for playing in a manner that wins them championships time and time again?
Also, with this new points scheme, it is conceivable that a team with an inferior record (W-D-L) could end up above a more successful team if they win by large margins. Another flaw with the system is say two teams are tied 3-3 in closing minutes (sick). The next goal is effectively worth 7 points in the table - that's just nuts! (You'll remember when Tottenham came back to tie Arsenal 4-4 in week 10, you know Wenger would be even less pleased if the new scoring system were in play).
A potentially more effective strategy could be to reward teams with a point for every goal they score. So a 4-3 match between A and B would result in 7 points for A and 3 for B, instead of 7 for A and 0 for B, as Wenger wants it. This would also reward goal scoring, attacking play, which is what Wenger has said he would like to see. Better yet, would be to give only a fraction of a point for goals scored, as 1 point per goal seems way too much - say a quarter of a point or something.
However, I have never been, and will never be a fan of goals or goal differential deciding rankings at the end of the season. Have a playoff game - THAT would be exciting (potentially). If spots 12 and 13 are tied on points at the end of the season, and they have a playoff game for bragging rights to spot 12 - boring. But imagine how thrilling it would be to have something similar to the promotion playoff games of the Coca-Cola Championship.
I'm getting wordy. My opinion is this: ONE - Do not ammend the points system, because scoring three points above the team you just beat should not effectively be 2 wins for you. TWO - If some goal differential/total goals proposition is accepted, do not make a goal = 1 point in the table. That places way too much importance on the number of goals you score versus the number of wins, draws, and losses you have. Make it such that 1 goal = 1/4 of a point, maybe 1/3 or at most 1/2.
Bottom line, I love how close the Premeirship table is, and I would not like to see a points scheme change that messes with that.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
ESPN (English Soccer Please Nothing else)
Excuse the poorly executed title. Despite the existence of far superior news sources for the game of football, I can't help but always check ESPNSoccernet. They have one aspect that really no other good newspaper/news source for soccer does, and that's an American perspective. There are always plenty of articles relating to Americans abroad, the MLS and the national team. It's to be expected obviously, as it's an American source intended for an American audience. Then I really have to ask the question, why on Earth is it so Anglo-centric? I can understand a bias towards the Premiership (equally so to La Liga and Serie A) but SoccerNet is becoming pretty ridiculous in how one-sided it is for European football. For the last three days, two of the cover pages have related to Alan Shearer rejoining Newcastle and the game over Ukraine. If I'm coming from an American perspective, do I really care about that more than the 6-1 thrashing Bolivia doled out to Argentina? Or the fact that Bosnia or Northern Ireland are shock group leaders? I don't know a single American without direct blood-ties (i.e. parents, maybe grandparents) who gives two shits about the English national team. Everyone has players they like, I am a huge Steven Gerrard fan for example, but I really could care less about how England do. In fact, I kinda like it when they do poorly, because the British press are absolutely hilarious in times like those.
It's ironic that the website is so biased when it appears the station is not. Sportscenter showed selected highlights from a variety of matches, and only did a particularly long highlight on the USA-T&T match. I've noticed a champions league bias, but that's quite understandable. Outside of huge upsets (on days when the Premiership isn't in action), you're never going to see mainland European news hitting the frontpages of Soccernet, and this flummoxes me. There's probably a plurality amongst soccer fans with Premiership fandom, but I really doubt it's overwhelming enough to basically snuff out any mention of the rest of Europe. Do I really care that much about Alan Shearer or the manager of Newcastle (No). Do I care more about England beating Ukraine than Spain beating Turkey or a handful of other games involving big teams? (No) Do I care about Harry Redknapp's latest soundbits? (Hell no). Maybe it's just been slow news out of the rest of Europe, and maybe I'm just irritable, but really, I'd like to see more variety of my SoccerNet.
It's ironic that the website is so biased when it appears the station is not. Sportscenter showed selected highlights from a variety of matches, and only did a particularly long highlight on the USA-T&T match. I've noticed a champions league bias, but that's quite understandable. Outside of huge upsets (on days when the Premiership isn't in action), you're never going to see mainland European news hitting the frontpages of Soccernet, and this flummoxes me. There's probably a plurality amongst soccer fans with Premiership fandom, but I really doubt it's overwhelming enough to basically snuff out any mention of the rest of Europe. Do I really care that much about Alan Shearer or the manager of Newcastle (No). Do I care more about England beating Ukraine than Spain beating Turkey or a handful of other games involving big teams? (No) Do I care about Harry Redknapp's latest soundbits? (Hell no). Maybe it's just been slow news out of the rest of Europe, and maybe I'm just irritable, but really, I'd like to see more variety of my SoccerNet.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)