Dragan Bender: The High School Project We Didn't Know We Needed

Dragan Bender is this year's unknown European draft prospect, and dude is even more unknown than usual. A vaguely athletic, tall, lanky, 18 year old question mark. While we have all had a lot of fun watching Kristaps Porzingis this past year, he did irreparable harm to the notion that all tall European draft prospects are a bunch of Andrea Bargnani clones. No longer can the articles just write themselves: tall, good-shooter, decent touch, questions about toughness, needs to put on weight, will flame out or be a stretch 4 who can't defend. Thank you Porzingis for giving us all more work.

But, when you look at Dragan Bender, the 7-1 Croatian Power Forward who is considered to be a surefire top-5 pick in next month's draft, all you see are the worrisome tropes that have plagued European draft prospects for as long as Chad Ford has been watching. First and foremost, he's 7-1 and 215 pounds. If that sounds insanely scrawny, it's because it is. There are questions over whether he can dominate at the NBA level, or even be a consistent All-Star hopeful. And while he has good vision, good touch and a good stroke, he doesn't have one elite skill or attribute at this point in his development other than "7-1."

Let's start with the good stuff. Bender is European and not named Ricky Rubio. Therefore, it is known that he can shoot. He isn't a lights-out jump shooter coming in with a reputation like Hezonja (and the jury is out on him) did last year, but he has legitimate three point range. Combined with soft touch around the basket and nifty hook shot, he's got both the mechanics of a good jump shot and the basis for a decent post game.

Most encouragingly for fans wary of another stiff looking to be on the wrong end of posters for the next decade, Bender has solid athleticism. Look, he's probably not hopping into the dunk contest anytime soon, but for a big, he's got above average lateral quickness and moves fluidly. To compare him to Porzingis, he seems to move with the same lanky-athletic gait as Kristaps, just a few inches shorter. He's quick for his size and while he won't necessarily project as an elite defender, he will most likely avoid the reputation so many other European bigs acquire of being a turnstile on defense.

Drafting European-based players is, by definition, a crapshoot. Bender is more so than most. He was not able to lock down regular minutes with Maccabi Tel Aviv and when he does play, you get a lot of this:
                                      
At first box score it seems impressive: 43 points against a European team you've maybe heard of. But watching the highlights, you can only know for certain that Bender will be absolutely fantastic at finishing uncontested layups. He's averaged 12 minutes a game for Maccabi, and almost all of his big-time action has come in youth tournaments or against weaker opposition. Compared to recent European successes like Porzingis and Mirotic, Bender just does not have as much high-level experience. While at first glance that is worrisome, much of that is due to his biggest advantage in this draft in terms of making him an attractive prospect.

He is still only 18 years old.

The NBA implemented the one-and-done rule mostly to insulate themselves from the risks of drafting talented youngsters who had not faced real competition. Investing on that much unknown information was always going to be a precarious proposition. Dragan Bender is basically a throwback to an earlier time where drafting an 18 year old without much high-level experience is exactly as unpredictable as you would imagine. The range of possibilities is wide, but the only real certainty is that Bender will not be in the running for rookie of the year next season.

Long-term, the biggest knock on Bender is his reputation as a jack of all trades. A lot of NBA players stay NBA players by being elite at one aspect of the game. This is particularly true of bigs. You don't need to have a jumpshot if you can patrol the paint, grab rebounds or block shots. Deandre Jordan is a deserved max player in the NBA, and any halfway decent high school point guard would shoot him out of a gym. The issue with Dragan Bender's game is there doesn't seem to be an aspect that is currently elite or approaching it. Most of the time a player is describe as a utility guy, it is anchored by strong defense and it remains to be seen if Bender will hit that level.

Bender has the size, athleticism and ability that makes it seem hard to imagine him completely flaming out of the league, but he doesn't seem to possess the killer ability that would make him an All-Star, which is generally a hope for a player a lot of mock drafts have going third. But in a weak draft where there are very few sure things and even those raise doubts, taking a swing at Bender might make sense in a draft without a lot of size and even less finished products.